Introduction EV insights: depth analysis of the challenges and opportunities in vehicle electrification

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Introducing EV Insights: In-Depth Analysis of Challenges and Opportunities in Vehicle Electrification John Petersen

After months of planning, I'm pleased to announce the launch of EV Insights, an Internet sitededicated to in-depth analysis of the challenges and opportunities invehicle electrification and other cleantech sectors. My partners inthisproject are Jack Lifton, a highly regarded expert in the fields of rareearth metals, mining and extractive industries, and Dr. Gareth Hatch, athought leader in the field of permanent magnet materials, componentsand their end uses in motors and power generation systems.

In coming months we will offer a series of wide-ranging and probinginterviews, conversations and debates with experts, industryprofessionals and executives from a variety of industrial sectors andcompanies that will play key roles in vehicle electrification and otheremerging cleantech sectors. Our goal is to go beyond happy-talkheadlines and advocacy and drill down into the more difficult issues ofsupply chains, technical maturity, sustainability and end-user value.We hope our discussions will give serious investors an edge byincreasing their understanding of how these issues will shape andultimately dominate the sixth industrial revolution, the age ofcleantech.

We don't know all the answers, but we have a pretty good feel for theimportant questions. We hope to learn by listening to people who knowmore than we do and asking hard questions that never make it into pressreleases, company presentations and the mainstream media. We're certainthat our conversations will have more balanced, informative and probingcontent than we could ever squeeze into a blog.

Our kickoff conversation is one Jack and I recorded in October thatdiscusses the challenges and opportunities in the battery sector. Therecording and transcript are available without charge to visitors whoare willing to part with their name and e-mail address.

EV Insights may eventually become a subscription service if initialuser feedback is positive, but for now it's just an experiment. Wetruly hope you'll volunteer as a lab rat by visiting us at www.evinsights.com and taking ourfirst conversation on the battery sector for spin around the block.
Posted by John Petersen on November 19, 2010 10:26 AM | Introducing EV Insights: In-Depth Analysis of Challenges and Opportunities in Vehicle Electrification

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Alternative energy and climate change investment funds, part III

Tom Konrad CFA

Performance of the green energy funds in the past. 

  In part I of this series, I looked at the full cost of alternative energy and climate change investment funds.I found that you were quite expensive, ranging from over 2% per year to almost 6 %.Eine Exchange which has historically produced returns 10.5% per year, but since ten years would flat, even 2.5% in issues per year have Resuted in significant loss of value.  For dragging on the returns form to these investment funds have strong evidence for bearings to show the picking skill.

Part II, I looked at the portfolio holdings to determine if they showed evidence of picking and selected likely to surpass sectors, the two funds that I thought the best combination of low cost and had to exceed probability.  I think that means holding too many solar shares under run because, while solar has a bright future, today's solar companies probably should be the main participants.

  Past performance

While performance is no guarantee (or even an indication) about future results in the past in just a few years, we can still use it to check our intuition.  In the case of my theory, the solar stocks tend to a drag on the performance of mutual fund that many of you keep Morningstar the following diagram of the past returns for alternative energy and climate change on the S and - P-500 in the past 10 years together.

  The eight mutual funds are the new alternative funds (NALFX), Guinness Atkinson alternative energy Fund (GAAEX), the Winslow green growth Fund (WGGFX), the first hand alternative energy Fund (ALTEX), Allianz Global Eco Trends Fund (AECOX), the Calvert global alternative energy Fund (CGACX), DWS climate change Fund (WRMSX) and the Gabelli SRI Green Fund (SRICX).  Compared to I performance S & P the last ten years-500-index and the performance of the oldest alternative energy exchange traded fund (ETF), the PowerShares wilderhill clean energy index (PBW) included.

The chart is to show how much would need, in a given year has been invested have, set around $1000 for it at the end of October 2010 to show up.  I've included investment funds loads in the calculations, but I have no taxes that investors might have to pay capital gains distribution or sale of the Fund accounted for.  With the chart that this set up $1,000 at the end of October 2010 will have the best funds are those at the bottom of the picture because you had in you to invest less.

One thing worth mentioning is that the clean energy ETF, PBW, worse than almost all of the investment funds, despite its lower cost performed. How the last time an in-depth look at alternative energy and climate change ETFs I, PBW has a high (around 35%) assignment of solar shares.The average mutual fund has a 24% allocation to solar.

Secondly, the two funds that I ended up like best part II of this series, the Winslow green growth Fund (WGGFX) and the new alternative funds (NALFX) both übertraf-S & P-500 in their lifetimes that more to carry lived new alternative much better.

Thirdly, the performance of Gabelli SRI Green Fund (SRICX) through a Meile.seit January 2008 is SRICX up 21%, while the S and - P beats all other-500 below 17% and the further bet is implementation of the funds in the same period (NALFX) cost is around 31 %.Aber of the Fund are the highest of the lot.It could be that executives skill? it's hard to say after less than three years.I have the lead manager, John Segrich CFA for an interview about your strategy gefragt.Wenn he agrees, I will post the interview as a later entry in this series.

"High solar" fund performance

Because the chart is pretty busy and most of the investment funds cannot long (three years) to say enough track record, much about you with confidence, I adjusted the chart by eliminating the diagrams of the new mutual funds and replaces it with a composite mutual fund, the average yields of three funds that weight solar stocks to the strongest.This is the light blue line called "high solar Fund."

In this diagram clean up it is now clear that the Fund with a high allocation to solar significantly worse than the two low solar funds I took in the last article, although you do, did better than the (highly solar) PBW.

Conclusion

While past performance does not say much about what happen years over, seems the evidence we have to invest in alternative energy without too much of this investment in solar shares to unterstützen.Wenn you want to use a mutual fund, it looks even as the best decisions NALFX (for longer holding) and WGGFX (for shorter holding are), but I think we can do better than that by choosing our allocations according to the five principles I II, and individual stocks to avoid high investment funds use part costs arranged.

Stocks for this portfolio can be drawn directly from the stock of mutual funds we discussed haben.Ich will list the stocks I would choose next week in part IV of this series.

Disclosure: No Positionen.GAAEX is an advertiser on AltEnergyStocks.com.

Disclaimer: The information and trades, provided here are for information purposes only and are no invitation to buy or sell this Wertpapiere.Investieren a significant risk, and you should evaluate your own threat levels before any investment is machen.Ergebnisse of the past no reference for the future Wertentwicklung.Bitte take the time to read the full disclaimer here.

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Benefits of a discretionary trust

As hard as it may seem, we must accept that they are always present with our Favorites. You certainly must have wondered who will take care of your family, your children when you are gone. Don't worry. There are options and reliable ones who can assure that your family and loved ones will be cared for, even in your absence. You just have to take the right steps, this is a discretionary trust is a very wise choice.

The benefits of a discretionary trust is many, most importantly, you can ensure that your assets are distributed to the recipients you optimally.A powerful tool for real estate planning and ensuring your assets for your family, majorly helps when it comes to minimise their tax and asset protection. One ever done a great deal for the favorite, but one always able to do the right thing.

This entry was posted on Friday, 29 October 2010 at 9: 25 pm and is filed under fetch a search you can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed you can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

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How to get an education loan

Get training from a proper foundation has become a costly affair. In fact, an aspect of its financing is the biggest obstacle to earn a good education specifically for moderate and low-income households. The scholarships offered by universities shall be confined to a few lucky students. The answer to this problem lies in an education loan.

Most banks and financial institutions offer loans and training packages to students.Student must decide on the loan amount required if the loan amount should cover only tuition fees or also include housing, travel and food. Loans institutions differ in terms of the level and nature of the interest rates charged, duration and payback policies.

You need to evaluate carefully the terms and conditions before taking loan. most schools and universities have tie-ups with banks and private lenders that provide loans at attractive prices.Private companies also offer education loans to employees existing and prospective.

This entry was posted on Tuesday, 16 November 2010 at 10: 51 pm and is filed under Student Loans you can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed you can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

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High conviction paired trade - short Tesla Motors and buy Exide Technologies

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High Conviction Paired Trade – Short Tesla Motors And Buy Exide Technologies John Petersen

Short sellers are the bane of every securities lawyer who representssmall public companies. In over thirty years of practice I've neveradvocated a short sale because I hate the idea of profiting fromsomeone else's misery. Based on recent quarterly reports filed by myshort-list of pure play energy storage companies, which includes TeslaMotors (TSLA)as an honorary member, I'm compelled to break with tradition andsuggest a paired trade that involves a short sale of Tesla coupled witha long purchase of Exide Technologies (XIDE).

The following table summarizes the year-to-date and quarter-to-dateperformance of the short-list companies. On a year-to-date basis, Teslahas been a runaway success while Exide languished. For the reasonsdiscussed below, that dynamic is sure to change over the coming year.



Most of us know that money managers, analysts and investors tend tofollow the herd without asking whether the herd's behavior is rational.Even a simplistic comparison of business fundamentals and marketrealities shows just how irrational the herd has become over the lastyear as electric vehicle hype reaches the peak of inflatedexpectations.

The following table is complex and I apologize for that, but ithighlights the huge disconnects between market values and financialstatement values that are common in the sector. To keep thingscomparable I started with data in the most recent quarterly reportsfiled by the short list companies and adjusted for financingtransactions that occurred after the last balance sheet date. Thecolumns with gold headers are business fundamentals derived fromfinancial statements. The columns with green headers are market drivenvariables.



Why I Would Short Tesla - Itdoesn't take much market experience to know that companies cannot longsustain market capitalizations of almost twelve times book value, butthat's exactly what Tesla is doing. When you drill down into thedisclosures in Tesla's most recent quarterly report, you'll find that$88 million of its $202 million in working capital is set aside asrestricted cash for capital investments in facilities construction,which leaves a paltry $114 in real working capital to cover anticipatedoperating losses and the pre-production costs for the 2012 introductionof its Model S sedan.

Any way you cut it, Tesla does not have enough cash to support itsbusiness for another year and it's already tapped Panasonic and Toyota.That means Tesla will have to go into the financial markets foradditional cash – lots of additional cash. While stock market investorsfrequently ignore financial statement fundamentals when makinginvestment decisions, I've met very few professionals with a similarlyblasé attitude. The probability that hundreds of millions in newcapital will be available to Tesla at anywhere close to a 1,200%premium to book value is remote beyond reckoning and it's a virtualcertainty that substantial transactions with independent investors willnot happen at anything close to the current market price.

Since the market can stay irrational longer than many of us can staysolvent, the safest way to play the likely price collapse will be along-dated out of the money put option. For purposes of tracking theperformance of this long-short pair over time, I'll use the publiclytraded January 2012 $25 put, which last traded for $6. The short won'tbe profitable unless Tesla's price falls below $19, but I still likethe risk/reward ratio.

Why I Would Buy Exide - I'vediscussed Exide at length in other articles including "ValuationPrimer For Energy Storage Companies – Lesson #1." The short storyis that it's taken Exide five years to emerge from Chapter 11 andrestructure its manufacturing operations to a point where consistentlong-term profitability is likely. Exide's current price earnings ratiois significantly below normal valuations of 15 to 18 times earnings andits prospects for rapid and sustained growth over the next five yearsare outstanding due to technological changes like stop-start idleelimination that are sweeping the automotive sector and will improvemargins in both its OEM and after-market replacement business. Whilethe financial analysts that follow Exide have an average price targetof $10, my sense is that a price toward the high end of the $10 to $15range is more likely.

Why Valence Terrifies Me -Valence Technologies (VLNC)has been around for years and is making significant progress in itsefforts to commercialize a good lithium-ion battery technology. Forseveral years it has depended on the commitment and generosity of aprincipal stockholder to keep the doors open. Currently Valence has a$7.3 million working capital deficit and a whopping $75.3 millionstockholders equity deficit. As long as the principal stockholder iswilling to continue providing additional financing on terms that arelittle more than gifts to the public stockholders, Valence stands achance. If it is forced to go to unrelated investors that are unwillingto be sugar daddies, the likelihood that it will be able to raise overa hundred million dollars of new capital at prices that bear anyrelation to the current market price is less than slim. While I haveoften been forced to rely on the kindness of strangers, hope is not aninvestment strategy.

Disclosure: Author is a formerdirector of Axion Power International (AXPW.OB)and has a substantial long position in its common stock.

Posted by John Petersen on November 16, 2010 08:41 AM | High Conviction Paired Trade – Short Tesla Motors And Buy Exide Technologies

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Review Primer for energy storage companies - lesson # 2

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Valuation Primer For Energy Storage Companies – Lesson #2 John Petersen

On November 6th I published Lesson#1 in this series, which provided a quick side-by-side comparisonof Ener1 (HEV)and Exide Technologies (XIDE).Yesterday two more companies that I track, A123 Systems (AONE) andEnersys (ENS),reported results for the September quarter. The quick summary isthat Enersys handily beat street estimates while thebleeding at A123 continued unabated.

To follow up with the format I introduced last week, the first graph isa simple market performance comparison of the two companies over thelast year.



The second graph comes from my quarterly tracking data and compares therelative market capitalizations of the two companies since September2009.



The following table compares the balance sheet fundamentals of the twocompanies, their income statement performance over the last twelvemonths, and some important per share valuation metrics.



The final table presents A123's reported product shipments, salesrevenue, cost of products sold and unabsorbed manufacturing costs overthe last year, both as gross numbers and on a per kWh basis.



I pay special attention to reported revenue and cost data because it'sso far out of sync with happy-talk stories in the mainstream mediaabout rapidly falling lithium-ion battery prices. A successfulmanufacturing enterprise must have a spread of 20% to 30% between unitcost and unit revenue to pay operating overhead and generate a profit.With a $1,010 per kWh average unburdened cost of products sold over thelast five quarters, A123 would need to charge its customers between$1,250 and $1,450 per kWh, which is a far cry from the $500 per kWhshort-term target for electric car batteries I keep reading about.Barring a visit from the manufacturing cost fairy, I can't see howsavings of that magnitude are possible over the next few years. Icertainly haven't seen any real progress over the last five quarters.

One could argue that this week's comparison between A123 and Enersysand last week's comparison between Ener1 and Exide are unfair becausethe lithium-ion battery developers are emerging technology companieswhile the lead-acid battery manufacturers have global footprints,decades of experience and immense financial muscle. The fallacy in thatargument is that lithium-ion battery developers are trying to displacewell-established lead-acid battery manufacturers with modest formfactor advantages and immense product cost handicaps.

For the last couple of years, the mainstream media has waxed propheticon the ability of lithium-ion battery developers to slash costs andimprove performance, while dismissing the possibility that there could be anysignificant improvement in lead-acid batteries because they'vebeen around for 150 years. The reality is that lead-acid chemistry hasbeen improving at a rapid pace over the last decade and thirdgeneration devices that combine carbon nanotechnology with lead-acidchemistry promise potentially disruptive gains in cycle-life, power anddurability.

Since size and weight are irrelevant in most existingapplications, electric vehicles can't become mainstream productswithout huge battery cost reductions, and the two chemistries will becompeting for the same customer dollars, I'm convinced valuations inthe lithium-ion battery sector are at or near the peak of inflatedexpectations depicted in the following graph from the Gartner Group.



Benjamin Graham observed that in the short-run the market acts like avoting machine but in the long run it acts like a weighing machine. Asthe weighing machine works its magic, valuation multiples in thelithium-ion sector are certain to decline while valuation multiples inthe lead-acid sector remain stable or improve. Since the essence ofsuccessful investing is buying stocks when they're undervalued andselling them when they're overvalued, the message to serious investorsseems clear.

Disclosure: None.
Posted by John Petersen on November 10, 2010 03:28 AM | Valuation Primer For Energy Storage Companies – Lesson #2

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