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Understanding Stop-Start Idle Elimination And Emerging Energy Storage Solutions | Alternative Energy Stocks
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« Three Top Geothermal E&P Companies | Main | High Conviction Paired Trade – Short Tesla Motors And Buy Exide Technologies » Understanding Stop-Start Idle Elimination And Emerging Energy Storage Solutions John PetersenLast week Lux Researchpublished a report titled "Micro-hybrids: On theRoad to Hybrid Vehicle Dominance" that forecasts micro-hybridvehicle sales of three million units this year increasing to 34 millionunits annually by mid-decade. Lux sent me a courtesy copy of theirreport and will
While I'm veryexcited about Lux's conclusions respecting micro-hybrid implementationrates, it's critical for investors to understand that batteries formicro-hybrids will merely be upgradesof batteries that would have been sold in any event. Therefore, thebenefit to battery manufacturers will be limited to the differencebetween the price of stop-start batteries and the price ofconventional batteries they'll replace. So while Lux valued the marketat $2.7billion annually, the incremental revenue to the energy storage sectorwill be a good deal lower.
Micro-hybrids, or more accurately "stop-start idle eliminationsystems," are baby steps in vehicle electrification. Stop-start systemsdon't provideany drive power to the wheels and their only goal is to reduce fuelconsumption by turning the engine off when the car isn't moving. It's athoroughly sensible idea, but one that's extremely hard onbatteries because instead of starting the engine twice in an averageday, an optimal stop-startsystem will start the engine an average of once per mile whilepowering all accessories during engine-off intervals.
The following graph is a scale representation of battery loads in aconventional vehicle and in a vehicle equipped with a stop-startsystem.The conventional vehicle cycle is simply a 1-second starter load of 300Amps (blue spike) beforethe alternator kicks in to recharge the battery. The stop-start vehiclecycle,in comparison, has a 60-secondaccessory load of 50 Amps (pink block) with a one-second starterload of 250Amps (red spike) at the end. While we naturally tend to think of enginerestart asthe main issue, the truly serious problem for stop-start systems is theaccessory loadsthat account for a whopping 92% of total energy demand.
In a typical year, the battery in a conventional vehicle will need tostart the engine about 730 times and deliver about 262,800watt seconds of energy to the starter. In contrast, the batteryin a vehicle equipped with a fully optimized stop-start system willneed to start the engine 12,500 times and deliver 487.5 millionwatt seconds of energy. In other words, the batteries for a fullyoptimized stop-start system will need to provide 17.1 times the cycling and 1,855 times the energy delivery. It's a verytall order.
The harsh reality is that currently available lead-acid batteries arenot robust enough to stand up to the demands of stop-start. Therefore,to avoid irreparable battery damage, all stop-start vehicles havecontrol electronics that monitor the battery's state of charge anddisable the stop-start system until the battery recovers. On newvehicles with new batteries the stop-start systems work beautifully. Asthe batteries age and charging intervals get longer, the frequency ofstop-start events plummets. In many cases the stop-startsystem simply doesn't work after a few months. This is aseriousproblem for the automakers that requires a serious solution.
The first alternatives the automakers tried to improve the performanceof stop-start systems included upgrading from floodedbatteries to AGM batteries, and/or adding a second battery. While AGMbatteries perform better than flooded batteries and two batteries perform better than one,the workarounds don't solve the fundamental problem.
In late September,Continental AGand Maxwell Technologies (
The bottom line is the automobile industry needs better energy storagesolutions if stop-start idleelimination is to achieve its full fuel savings and emissions reductionpotential.
The Department of Energy believes the most promising short-termalternatives are third-generation devices that combine carbonnanotechnology and lead-acid chemistry in a monoblock battery.The two leading contenders, which both received awards under the DOE'sARRA Battery Manufacturing Grant program, are:
The Ultrabattery from CSIRO, Furukawa and East PennManufacturing, a flooded device that uses a split-electrode design to replace half of eachlead-based negative electrode with a carbon electrode, resulting in a75% – 25% battery/supercapacitor hybrid; andThe PbC battery from Axion Power International (
At this year's EuropeanLead Battery Conference in Istanbul, Axion and BMW publishedupdated versions of the following graphs that compare the PbC batteryand a high quality AGM battery over a 40,000-cycle test. The graph onthe left is the AGM battery and the downward curving blue linerepresents the charge acceptance rate, which declines rapidly from aninitial value of 70 Amps and eventually stabilizes around 20 Amps. Theupward curving black line represents the time required to regain anoptimal state of charge which begins at about 30 seconds and eventuallystabilizes in the 120 second range. The graph on the right is the PbCbattery, which maintains a stable charge acceptance rate of 100 Ampsand a stable recovery time of 30 seconds for the entire test period,which approximates a five-year service life.
The Ultrabattery and the PbC are both properly classified as late-stagedevelopment projects. The technologies have performed very well indemonstration and testing, but their developers are working onindustrial and production engineering issues and will need to expand production capacity before they can satisfy more than a small fraction of the automotive market. Since both technologies are generational improvements onestablished lead-acid chemistry, they should enjoy significant speedand cost advantages during the commercial introduction phase because oftheir ability to leverage supply chains, existing production facilitiesand global distribution chains that already exist for theirflooded and AGM cousins.
Based on interviews with automakers about their current stop-startimplementation plans, Lux concluded that enhanced flooded batterieswould account for over $1 billion in annual sales by 2015 (39% marketshare); AGM batteries would account for another $1.6billion in annual sales (59% market share); and dual-device systemslike the Continental-Maxwell battery-supercapacitor product wouldaccount for $55 million in annual sales (2% marketshare). While Lux acknowledged the Ultrabattery and PbC as emergingtechnologies that could be contenders, it was apparently unwilling toestimate future market penetration rates for devices that aren't available yet.
On the topic of investment opportunities in the stop-start market, the Lux report said, "Unlike the lithium-ion battery space, which sports a number ofearly-stage start-ups, the micro-hybrid storage market supports fewstartups outside of Swedish firm Effpower. Outside of the giants likeJohnson Controls, Exide Battery, and GS Yuasa, most of theinvestment/acquisition plays are public companies like MaxwellTechnologies [$414 million marketcapitalization] and Axion Power [$48.5 million market capitalization].Of the two, Maxwell is the surer bet right now, with revenues over $100million and a major automotive contract already in place. However,don’t count out Axion completely – although its technology is on theexpensive side today, it has a large war chest, a strong partner inExide, and compelling opportunities in distributed storage anduninterruptible power supply (UPS) systems even if the micro-hybridmarket doesn’t pan out." [My additions]
The flooded and AGM batteries automakers are currently using for stop-start systems are woefully inadequate for the job, with and without supercapacitor modules. Since regulations concerning fuel economy and CO2 emissions are the driving force behind the rapid global implementation of stop-start technology, I think it's very unlikely that governments will let automakers circumvent the rules by using conventional flooded and AGM batteries that leave the stop-start systems inoperable within a few months. As reports from stop-start vehicle owners like my friend Graham who says "I can't remember the last time the engine in my Mini turned itself off during a drive," become more common, revised regulations that focus on lifetime performance instead of new vehicle performance are almost certain. At that point the industry will be forced to shift over to more robust batteries for stop-start vehicles even if they are $100 to $150 more expensive.
Disclosure: Author is a formerdirector of Axion Power International (
Posted by John Petersen on November 14, 2010 10:18 AM | Understanding Stop-Start Idle Elimination And Emerging Energy Storage Solutions advertise here
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