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« High Conviction Paired Trade – Short Tesla Motors And Buy Exide Technologies | Main | Alternative Energy and Climate Change Mutual Funds, Part III » Vehicle Electrification And The "Too Good To Be True Rule" John PetersenOne of the first lessons investment professionals learn is that if aninvestment proposal sounds too good to be true, the proposal isprobably materially false and misleading. On November 15th, theElectrification Coalition
In building the best policy case for the electrification of commercialfleets, the Roadmap used this gee-whiz graph of vehicle emissions bytechnology and fuel type. The source of the data was a 2007 study bythe Electric Power Research Institute.
Unfortunately the 2007 EPRI data that served as a basis for graph ismeaningless. The fundamental premise is flawed because the graphassumes well-to-wheel CO2 emissions of 450 grams permile for a car with an internal combustion engine and 300 grams permile for an HEV. Unfortunately both estimates overstate current realities by about 50%.
The internal combustion engine values may have been good a few yearsago, but they're worthless in light of
ModelCO2EmissionsCO2EmissionsYear
Pump-to-Wheel
Well-to-Wheel
2012
295 gramsper mile
369 gramsper mile2013
286 gramsper mile358 gramsper mile2014
276 gramsper mile345 gramsper mile2015
263 gramsper mile329 gramsper mile2016
250 gramsper mile313 gramsper mile
Similarly, the HEV values may have been good a few years ago, but theyare meaningless in light of the fact that the 2010 Toyota Prius haspump-to-wheel CO2 emissions of 89 grams per kilometer,or 143 grams per mile, and well-to-wheel CO2 emissionsof 179 grams per mile.
If you reduce the Roadmap's 450 gram per mile ICE estimate to complywith the regulatory mandate of 313 grams per mile by 2016, PHEVs losemuch of their appeal. If you reduce the HEV estimate to the current 179grams per mile performance of the Prius, the only plug-in that canhonestly claim parity, much less superiority, is one that'sequipped with a dedicated wind turbine.
I wholeheartedly support the Electrification Coalitions desire to"disseminate informed, detailed policy research and analysis," butthink that they should consider adding "accurate, current and balanced"to the desiderata. If any of the CEOs that support thework of the Electrification Coalition published this kind of nonsensein their SEC reports, there'd be hell to pay.
Disclosure: None
Posted by John Petersen on November 17, 2010 04:34 AM | Vehicle Electrification And The "Too Good To Be True Rule" advertise here
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